Heat pumps are moving from a niche job to a core part of the UK heating market, and service businesses are being asked to keep up. The government's Warm Homes Plan, published in January 2026, aims for over 450,000 heat pump installations a year by 2030. Heat pump sales hit a record of over 125,000 in 2025, according to the government's Boiler Upgrade Scheme business case.

The 2026 picture is more mixed. MCS data shows just over 25,000 certified heat pump installations in the first half of 2026, down 17% on the same period last year, and three quarters of them were funded through schemes like the Boiler Upgrade Scheme (MCS, August 2026). Demand is strongly tied to grants and policy, which matters when you plan capacity and cash flow. The grant effect shows in applications: government figures show a record 8,150 Boiler Upgrade Scheme applications in July 2026, after the grant rose from £7,500 to £9,000 for homes on heating oil and LPG.

This post looks at heat pumps from the point of view of a service or installation business: where policy stands, the pros and cons, what funding is available, which certifications you need and what it means for F-Gas work.

Heat pump facts at a glance

• Grant: the Boiler Upgrade Scheme pays £7,500 towards an air-to-water, ground source or water source heat pump, and £9,000 for eligible off-gas grid properties until 31 March 2027 (Ofgem).
• VAT: the zero rate on installing heat pumps ends on 31 March 2027, then the reduced rate of 5% applies (HMRC).
• MCS: every installer must operate under the redeveloped MCS scheme by 31 March 2027 (MCS).
• Target: the Warm Homes Plan aims for over 450,000 heat pump installations a year by 2030 (GOV.UK).
• F gas: heat pumps that contain F gas need personally qualified engineers, and companies servicing equipment operated by others need company certification (GOV.UK).

Where heat pump policy stands now

The Warm Homes Plan commits £15 billion of public investment to upgrading homes by 2030. It expects heat pumps to become "the desirable and natural choice" when households replace a heating system at the end of its life, and it relies on the Future Homes Standard and Future Buildings Standard to make low carbon heating standard in new buildings.

The government's announcement also promises up to 180,000 additional jobs in energy efficiency and clean heating by 2030, and government-backed low and zero interest loans that will cover heat pumps.

Funding for the Boiler Upgrade Scheme now runs to 2029/30. The scheme's business case sets budgets of £400 million in 2026/27, rising to £709 million in 2029/30, and the scheme regulations were amended on 28 April 2026 to add the air-to-air grant.

For a service contractor, the practical point is timing. Grants and new-build rules are pulling installation demand forward, and every system that goes in becomes an asset that needs servicing. Joblogic helps service contractors run that servicing side, with planned maintenance contracts and asset records in one system.

Heat pump types: the options

Heat pumps are electrically powered. They gather small amounts of heat from air, ground or water and concentrate it to warm a building.

Air source heat pumps take heat from outside air. Air-to-water systems pass it to water, which heats rooms through radiators or underfloor heating and supplies hot water. Air-to-air systems heat (and can cool) by moving heat to the air in a room, and are now eligible for a Boiler Upgrade Scheme grant in residential properties.

Ground source heat pumps absorb heat from the ground through a buried pipe loop, in a trench or a borehole. A mixture of water and antifreeze carries the heat to a heat exchanger and into the heat pump.

Water source heat pumps extract heat from a nearby lake, loch, pond or river, and are a more specialist option than air or ground source.

The pros and cons of heat pumps for service businesses

The pros:

• Demand is being built by policy. The Warm Homes Plan targets over 450,000 installations a year by 2030, and the government expects up to 180,000 additional jobs in energy efficiency and clean heating by that date.
• Grants lower the upfront cost for your customers. The Boiler Upgrade Scheme takes £7,500 off an air source, ground source or water source heat pump, and installers apply on the customer's behalf.
• Efficiency is a strong selling point. The government's business case says heat pumps run at around three times the efficiency of gas boilers on average, and that installation costs for scheme-supported heat pumps have fallen by 11% since 2022.
• Installed systems create recurring work. Servicing and planned maintenance fit contract-based revenue, which is the part of the business many contractors want more of.
• VAT is currently zero-rated. HMRC's VAT Notice 7086 says the zero rate applies to installing heat pumps until 31 March 2027, so there is a window to get quotes accepted.

The cons:

• Cost is still a barrier. The government's own business case for the scheme puts the average heat pump installation at around £9,000 more than replacing an existing fossil fuel heating system without a grant, with a capital cost gap that remains.
• The VAT zero rate ends on 31 March 2027, after which the reduced rate of 5% applies. That changes customer quotes, so plan for it now.
• You need the right certifications. The Boiler Upgrade Scheme only works through MCS certified installers, and heat pumps containing F gas bring F gas qualification and company certification requirements.
• Noise matters. In England, an air source heat pump installed under permitted development has to pass the MCS 020 a) sound calculation, which is mandatory from 20 September 2025 and works to the permitted development noise limit of 42 dB(A).
• Not every property qualifies for the grant. The scheme is open in England and Wales, and new-build homes and social housing are not eligible.
• Demand depends on policy. MCS data shows certified heat pump installations in the first half of 2026 were down 17% on the same period of 2025, with three quarters funded by schemes and incentives.
• Skills take time. Engineers who have worked on gas boilers for years will need training before they can install or service heat pumps.

Funding and the Boiler Upgrade Scheme

The Boiler Upgrade Scheme (BUS) gives property owners in England and Wales an upfront grant towards a heat pump. It is installer-led: MCS certified installers apply for and redeem the vouchers on behalf of the property owner, so the grant comes off the customer's quote.

New-build homes and social housing are not eligible, although self-build properties are. Scheme terms and rates change, so check the Ofgem page before you quote a customer.

The scheme sits alongside the wider support in the Warm Homes Plan, including the loans mentioned above. If you install heat pumps, the grant is a sales tool: it lowers the price your customer sees, and your installer account with Ofgem is how you access it.

What is MCS certification?

MCS (the Microgeneration Certification Scheme) is the quality assurance scheme for small-scale renewable installations, including heat pumps. Only MCS certified installers can apply for Boiler Upgrade Scheme vouchers, so certification is a commercial requirement as well as a quality mark.

MCS has also redeveloped its installer scheme. Every installer will have to operate under the new rules by 31 March 2027, which MCS says includes a higher level of financial protection and a legally binding commitment to adhere to consumer protection law (MCS, August 2026). If you are certified today, plan for that deadline.

MCS also sets the noise standard for permitted development. The updated MCS 020 a) sound calculation for air source heat pumps became mandatory on 20 September 2025, and England relaxed its permitted development rules for air source heat pumps on 29 May 2025, including removing the one metre boundary rule.

What heat pumps mean for F-Gas work

Many heat pumps use F gas refrigerants. Where they do, the same F gas rules apply as for air conditioning and refrigeration, as the NetRegs F gas controls guidance for stationary refrigeration, air conditioning and heat pumps sets out. The government's regulated professions register also lists heat pump equipment alongside refrigeration and air conditioning under the F gas handler requirements.

In practice that means each engineer needs their own F gas qualifications, and a company that services F gas equipment operated by others needs company certification, sole traders included. Check the refrigerant in each system, because not every heat pump contains F gas.

Records matter too. For equipment in scope of the UK F gas rules, which depends on the amount of F gas in the system, the records you must keep include the type and quantity of gas added during maintenance and the dates and results of mandatory leak checks. NetRegs says operators must keep these records for at least five years.

What does the future look like for gas engineers?

Gas work will not disappear overnight. The government's business case says around 85% of homes are heated by a gas boiler and 1.5 to 1.7 million gas boilers are replaced each year. The Warm Homes Plan aims for heat pumps to become the natural choice when a heating system reaches the end of its life, which means existing boilers still need servicing and replacing for years to come.

The business case also puts the workforce in numbers. It estimates around 10,000 trained installers are active today, many of whom also work on gas boilers, equal to about 4,000 full-time installers, and says the workforce would need to grow to about 12,000 full-time equivalent installers by 2030.

Joblogic covers boiler servicing and gas certificates alongside F-Gas records in one system, so a team adding heat pump work can keep its records together.

Training support exists. Heating installers in England can claim up to £500 towards heat pump training through the Heat Training Grant, for training that takes place in England.

The direction of travel is still clear. A 450,000-a-year installation target, new-build standards and funding for heat pumps all point the same way, so gas engineers should be thinking about future-proofing their careers. Upskilling is the safest hedge, whether that is heat pump training, the MCS route or F gas qualifications for engineers who will handle refrigerant.

Running heat pump work on Joblogic

Heat pump work comes down to the same questions as any other service contract: who is going, what they need to know about the equipment, and whether the paperwork is there afterwards. Joblogic's HVAC management software gives your office one place to schedule and track engineers, and gives engineers one mobile app to work from, including without a signal once the visit details have downloaded.

Joblogic's planned maintenance tools schedule recurring visits against each asset, with PPM contracts available on the Premium and Enterprise plans. Engineers can scan a QR code on the equipment to pull up its service history through Joblogic's asset management feature.

For systems that contain F gas, Joblogic's F-Gas compliance feature lets engineers record every F-Gas transaction and leak test on the mobile app, and a PDF is attached to the job. The Refcom mobile guide on the Joblogic support portal covers leak checks, additions, removals and corrections. If you are building a servicing offer, our guide to heat pump servicing covers the maintenance side in more detail.

Where to start

Most businesses choose between adding heat pump servicing to the contracts they already run, training up to install, or doing both. Either way, the groundwork is the same: MCS certification if you want customers to use the grant, F gas qualifications where the system contains F gas, and one system that keeps asset, service and compliance records together. The right route depends on your team, your customers and the work you already do.

Ready to see how it fits? Book a demo with one of our specialists, who will walk you through the platform and show you how it fits your HVAC business.

Frequently asked questions

How much is the Boiler Upgrade Scheme grant?

The Boiler Upgrade Scheme gives £7,500 off an air-to-water, ground source or water source heat pump, £9,000 for eligible off-gas grid properties until 31 March 2027, and £2,500 for a residential air-to-air heat pump. An MCS certified installer applies for the grant on the property owner's behalf.

Do you need to be MCS certified to install heat pumps under the Boiler Upgrade Scheme?

Yes. Only MCS certified installers can apply for and redeem Boiler Upgrade Scheme vouchers on behalf of property owners.

Do heat pump engineers need F gas qualifications?

If the heat pump contains F gas, yes. Anyone working on it needs their own F gas qualifications, and a company that services F gas equipment operated by others needs company certification, sole traders included. Check the refrigerant in each system, because not every heat pump contains F gas.

What is changing for MCS installers in 2027?

MCS has redeveloped its installer scheme, and every installer will have to operate under the new rules by 31 March 2027. MCS says this includes a higher level of financial protection and a legally binding commitment to adhere to consumer protection law.

When does the zero rate of VAT on heat pump installation end?

The zero rate of VAT on installing heat pumps ends on 31 March 2027. After that, installations revert to the reduced rate of 5%, according to HMRC's VAT Notice 7086.

Do air source heat pumps need planning permission?

In England, a domestic air source heat pump can be installed without planning permission as permitted development if it meets the conditions, including the MCS 020 a) noise calculation, which works to a limit of 42 dB(A) at the nearest neighbour's habitable room.